Your blogger was in Nigeria a week ago, trying to think above the incessant wheeze-choke-rattle of the neighbours’ generators, which kick into life every evening to compensate for the appalling absence of state-generated power. Perhaps ‘think’ is too rich a word for what was going through my mind as I daydreamed about a Call of Duty style raid that would leave said generators scattered over a ten mile radius. My dear Mama must have sensed that I was troubled because she innocently offered me a penny or my thoughts.
Well, that got me thinking. A penny ? Is that all my thoughts were worth. I live in a world where people are paid vast sums of money for their thoughts but what if all along they should just have been given pennies for them? Eager to seize on any distraction from the wretched generators I grabbed a piece of paper and started doing some calculations. Here they are, poor fare though they may represent:
First we must assume that some bloke is trying to sell you a thought for a pound (we are talking pennies so let’s stick to British currency). He is in fact going to exchange some carefully formulated words and nothing else for some hard-earned cash. Now, let’s try to put a value on these words.
If Alexander Graham Bell and Elisha Grey both independently came up with devices to transmit speech electronically, it follows that our man’s thought is highly unlikely to be unique. He may be the smart kid in the dumb class but that doesn’t mean that there are not a lot of other smart kids around, some of whom may be smarter than him. To me that fact alone loses the thought 90% of its value. That anyone could have had the same thought is not the great devaluer, it is that many other people have had exactly the same thought and our man is trying therefore to sell something he does not really own.
In today’s money the thought is now worth 10 pence, which is still ten times more than my mother would pay for it. To understand the loss of the rest of its value we should go back to the preceding paragraph and the words “smarter than him”. Yes, while a thought remains unproven as fact, the possibility exists that it is not very good and that better thoughts can be freely had. One can picture Mrs Bell looking at her husband’s device and thinking “all very well but who can I call?” It took a long while for the telephone to reach the level of utility that it has today and I’m not sure that many people would pay premium price for an acorn in the hope that one day it will become a mighty oak. Nope, for me the thought has now lost half its value.
Five pence for a thought missus? My mother shakes her head and holds out her shiny penny. It is all she will give because she knows there is more. In a world full of thoughts many of those thoughts cannot be achieved. Let us be generous and assume that just over half of thoughts have practical merit; and because my maths is very poor let’s round that up to 60%. This means that our man’s though is now down to 3 pence.
If I were him I’d sell now if there were any buyers because the real kicker is beginning to occur to me. If we take some studies seriously, 80% of new businesses fail in the first 3 years. Now nobody starts a business thinking that’s a really bad idea, I’ll do it anyway. This means that 80% of thoughts are positively bad for you. Our man’s thought could be seriously detrimental to your wealth! So now we should only give him 20% of the 3 pence for his thought. Luckily for him there is nothing in British currency as low as 0.6 of a penny, so we generously round it up and hey presto, 1p.
It turns out my mother was not being harsh, she was being gloriously generous. Well that’s what I think anyway and now you know what my thoughts are worth…